WRITTEN BY: MAX FITZGERALD
OCTOBER 2021

 

Before the blink of an eye, everyone will be gathering for a day of gratitude, family, feasting, and football. From there, it will be turkey leftovers, holiday parties, and families gathering for gift-giving with loved ones.

From now through the week before Thanksgiving, it is the last hurrah before housing transitions from the Autumn Market to the Holiday Market, which is historically the slowest time of the year for real estate. The holidays are filled with distractions, and as a result, the hunt for a home takes a back seat to the holiday festivities.

However, with the market being so incredibly strong, will this year's holiday slowdown be as impactful versus years prior? Let's examine the facts.

 

Supply Will Slowly Start to Decrease


November and December are the two months out of the year that the fewest number of homeowners opt to list their homes for sale.

The five-year average number of homes coming on the market from 2015 - 2019 (intentionally omitting 2020 due to the skew from COVID) for November is 5,792 homes, 36% less than the annual height in June of 8,992. In December, inventory drops to 3,756 homes, 58% less than the height in June.



Buyer Demand Will Decrease As Well


During these winter months, many buyers also place their home shopping desires on hold while they enjoy the holiday season. As a result, buyer demand (as measured by the number of new escrows over the prior month), significantly decreases.

From 2015 to 2019, demand sank by 36% to its lowest level of the year.



Will the “2021” Holiday Market Be Any Different?


As we have discussed in previous reports, this strong real estate market is being driven by two key factors: A) historically low interest rates, and B) a fundamental lack of available housing inventory. While the real estate market is historically slow during the holiday months, the 2021 Holiday Market might behave a bit differently.

Buyers and sellers that do participate in this real estate market during the holidays can expect housing to continue to soar at a record pace with bidding wars and multiple offers. Today's incredibly low 3% mortgage rate will continue to fuel demand, and rates are not expected to change much for the remainder of the year.



Attention Buyers: This incredibly strong Seller’s Market will continue to persist throughout the remainder of the year, even with demand dropping during the holidays.


Remember, it is not just buyer demand that decreases over the Holiday Market, but the number of available homes to purchase decreases as well. To wait until later in the year for a "deal" during the "slowest time of the year for real estate" simply does not make sense. The real estate market will not feel much different in December compared to today.

Attention Sellers: It really is the last call to cash in on the 2021 housing market and find success.


Sellers who are clearly overpriced in this Autumn Market are running out of time, and are heading towards the end of the year slowdown with drastically fewer participating home buyers due to the holidays. While we do expect this 2021 Holiday Market to be elevated versus the seasonal norm, the time to be accurately priced while taking full advantage of maximum market exposure is right now, today!

 
 

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